A new poll commissioned by Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton's own campaign claims Democrat Xavier Becerra's lead in California's governor race has narrowed to single digits, a result that stands well outside the range of recent independent polling.
What the campaign poll found
The survey, conducted for the Hilton campaign by pollster David Wolfson of Columbia University's Political Analytics program, texted 912 registered California voters between August 14 and 18 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 points. It found Becerra leading Hilton 49.2% to 41%, with the rest undecided, marking the first time in this survey series that Becerra polled below 50%.
Xavier Becerra's support is collapsing as more and more Californians learn about his horrific record as HHS Secretary.
Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate
Why the numbers look so different elsewhere
Because the poll was commissioned directly by the Hilton campaign, IF Daily is treating its topline result as a campaign claim rather than a neutral measurement. Independent surveys taken around the same period show a much wider gap: the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies had Becerra ahead 55% to 37% in a poll conducted August 3-9, and the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found Becerra leading 63% to 35% shortly after the June primary. Whether the race is genuinely tightening or the campaign poll is an outlier will likely become clearer as additional independent polling is released ahead of the November election to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom.
